Small 'I Love Brazil' Adult's Cotton Crop Top (CO00076211)

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A weighted average yield was calculated based on the average yield reported for the municipalities located within the buffer zone and the relative contribution of each department to the total crop harvested area in the buffer zone. Reported Yw (or Yp for irrigated rice) in the Atlas are long-term averages. Yield gap (Yg) was calculated as the difference between long-term average Yw (rainfed crops) or Yp (irrigated crops) and average (2012-2017) farmer yield. Including more years before 2012 in the calculation of average actual yield would have led to a biased estimate of average actual yield due to a strong technology trend in Brazil. In the case of buffers where both safra and safrinha were common maize, average maize yield was estimated by averaging their respective average yields, weighting by the proportion of maize area under each crop system. Bender, F.D., Sentelhas, P.C., 2018. Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Advances in Meteorology, 2018, 1-15.

Marin, FR, Jones, JW, Singles, A., Royce, F., Assad, E.D., Pellegrino, G.Q., Justino, F., 2012. Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil. Climatic Change 117, 227-239. Heinemann, A. B., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Rebolledo, M. C., Neto, G. M. F. C., & Castro, A. P., 2019. Upland rice breeding led to increased drought sensitivity in Brazil. Field Crops Research 231, 57-67. For the simulations, rooting depth was set at 2 m (sugarcane), 0.8 m (soybean and maize), and 0.4 m (upland rice) to reflect the limitation to root growth in deep horizons due to low pH and differences among crop species in rooting patterns and/or tolerance to low pH (Pivetta et al., 2011, Battisti et al., 2017; Franchini et al., 2017). Calibrated pedo-transference functions for tropical soils were used to derive soil water limits (Tomasella et al., 2000). Field capacity was set at -10 kPa following the observations for tropical soils by Reichardt (1998) and Tomasella and Hodnett (2004). Soil properties were not considered for simulation of yield potential for irrigated rice. Annual crop production area in Brazil occupies 69 million ha. Major crops are soybean, maize, sugarcane, and rice which account for 90% of total crop area, and (except for rice) the country is one of the largest producers and exporters of these crops. Most sugarcane, soybean, and maize is produced in rainfed conditions (>90%); rice is produced in irrigated (80%) and rainfed (20%) conditions in the southern and north-central regions, respectively. Cooper, M., Mendes, L.M.S., Silva, W.L.C., Sparovek, G., 2005. A national soil profile database for Brazil available to international scientists. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 69, 649-652.Inman-Bamber, N.G., 1991. A growth model for sugarcane based on a simple carbon balance and the CERES-Maize water balance. S. Afr. J. Plant Soil 8, 93–99. Figure 1. Comparison of simulated and observed phenology (left) and grain yields (right) for rice (top), soybean (middle), and maize (bottom).The solid red line represents y = x and the dashed red lines represents ± 20% deviation from the y -x line.RMSE = mean square root of error.The phenological stages of rice, soybean and maize were based on the scales ofCounce et al.(2000), Fehr and Caviness (1977), and Ritchie et al. (1993), respectively . Franchini, J.C., Antonio, A., Junior, B., Debiasi, H., Nepomuceno, A.L., 2017. Root growth of soybean cultivars under different water availability conditions Crescimento radicular de cultivares de soja em campo em diferentes disponibilidades hídricas. Ciências Agrárias, Londrina, 38, 715–724. Department-level data on crop harvested area and average yields for each crop was retrieved from the IBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistic). Statistics from the most recent six crop growing seasons (harvest years: 2012-2017) were used to calculate crop area and average yields.

The 1-3 dominant soil series were identified for each RWS buffer based on data from the Radambrasil project (see Cooper et al., 2005). In each buffer, dominant soils were selected to cover at least 30%. Each selected soil had at least 10% of the area. Selected soils were verified by local experts and modified as needed to ensure that simulated soils represented the most common agricultural soils. While only one crop per year is grown in the eastern part of the country, most producers grow two crops (1-year soybean-maize sequence called ‘safrinha') in the western region (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Tocantins, Goiás, and Parana). Marin, F.R.; Thorburn, P.; Nassif, D.S.P.; Costa, L.G. 2015. Sugarcane model intercomparison: Structural differences and uncertainties under current and potential future climates. Environmental Modelling & Software, 72, 372-386. Most typical maize and soybean crop systems were: 2-y soybean-maize (with one crop per year) and 1-y soybean-maize (‘safrinha'). In the latter, soybean is planted with the onset of rains in October and matures in January. Maize is planted after soybean harvest. The rainy season ends before maize maturity, leading to terminal drought in most years. For maize, we simulated both safra and safrinha when both accounted for >30% of maize area within each buffer; if not, only the most dominant maize system was simulated in each buffer. Van Wart, J., Grassini, P., Yang, H.S., Claessens, L., Jarvis, A., Cassman, K.G., 2015 Creating long-term weather data from the thin air for crop simulation modelling. Agric. For. Meteoro. 209-210, 45-58.Data from the Atlas is available for use under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Marin, F. R. Jones, J. W. Royce, F. 2011. Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane. Agron. J. 103, 297-303.